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Climate report:
Droughts in the southeast and the west, recrod rainfall in the middle of the country. same as last year and the year before. Result: massive flooding in the middle of the country. Widespread wildfires in the west. There have also been wildfires in the east. Lightning seems to be the main culprit.
Math lesson for Monday:
loads and loads of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere = global warming faster than would normally happen
runaway global warming = more severe storms, droughts, and / or flooding or more flooding than normal (aka climate gone bonkers, and those are just a few of the issues)
more severe storms = more lightning strikes
drought = dry forests
lightning strikes + dry forests = wildfires
massive flooding = dead crops, dead animals and dead people
CO2 + CH4 = R
R = a, b, c
a = x
b = y
c = we're f*cked
x + y = oh sh*t
R = Right. Not actually funny. It sucks. R is for reality check.
(last night we had storms in the southeast and the lightning was phenomenal. This after no rain for nearly all of June.I miss gentle rains; where did they go?)
In the White House rose garden, Dubya announced his latest fabulous idea: the lift the current ban on offshore oil drilling in the United States. He also announced that he wants Congress to make it easier for oil refineries to expand. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino described the lift as to "pass legislation lifting the congressional ban on safe, environmentally friendly offshore oil drilling." (if ever there was an oxymoron…Dana is the Specialist. To say the words safe, environmentall friendly and offshore oil drilling together wins the prize. New blockbuster film idea: Dana Perino in The Specialist 2: Oxymorona. It will make the just-released film Wanted look like child’s play.) The President of the President’s (that was fun) Economic Council, Keith Hennessey admitted, this will be "measured in years" referring to, the ability to improve the current situation, which was a perfectly intelligent and informed thing to say. Then he made a complete idiot of himself and stated, that the prospect of more oil in the future will make people use more oil now, which will stimulate the economy, and fix the current problem. (Om….Isn’t our problem that we have been using too much and now it has finally caught up with us? Need I say anything about his last statement anyway? Doesn’t stoopid sell itself?) Now, as things work, someone else actually came up with the dumb idea in the first place. Who did so, you may ask? Well…on Sunday, Presidential candidate extraordinnaire John McCain blurted that he wants the ban lifted. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said in response, it is "a bad idea" (Go, Bill!) and will "take ten years" to get any oil of significance out of the continental shelf. He also stated that it is a "fragile ecosystem" and blasted Congress for failing to pass a bill for a solar energy tax credit. Governor Charlie Crist of Florida has jumped on McCain’s bandwagon (or should we say, SUV) about lifting the ban. This as Congress was poised to extend the ban (since 1981) on offshore drilling. Why ban it, you may ask? Well, first of all, it was banned for environmental reasons. Oil drilling = oil spills. Second of all, it is not the solution for our problems. The process will be this, if the ban is lifted: Thing is, we have been sucking up oil from any source possible at a rate far greater than any other country. Period. Want to know the stats: the US uses 20,800,000 barrels of oil per day (CIA World Factbook) with 303 plus change million people. We are number one. China is number two, and they use 6,930,000 barrels per day. People: 1 billion, 330 million plus change. They have 1 billion, twenty-seven million more people in their country than we do and use one-third as much oil. Do we see a usage problem in the U.S. here?
In eastern North Carolina, there is a wildlife preserve known as Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge.
The refuge was created in 1990 and encompasses over 110,000 acres of land. A Pocosin is a special type of scrubby forest that grows on a hill in a swamp of deep organic soil. I have a personal tie to this refuge, as I grew up down there in that area, as well as chose to do an environmental impact statement (EIS) on it in grad school to fight the US Navy.
The Navy has had its eye on the refuge as a new location for an air base it wants to build and has tried to get ahold of it for years. They did an EIS that was crap and was sued for it by several organisations, including the Southern Environmental Law Center, which delayed the Navy's getting its hands on it. They finally gave up in January 2008 (but are still looking at other coastal sites). The refuge is home to many species of creatures and plants, such as the red wolf and black bear, and many birds use it during migration, including over 100,000 Tundra Swans and Snow Geese which overwinter there.
It has been burning for a week. Lightning started the fire, but the incredibly hot temps (unseasonably 20 degrees higher than the norm) and lack of rainfall have kept it going. It is still burning as I write this. 30,000 acres have burned so far.
Update, Sunday, 5pm EST: Still burning. Temps at 100 degrees F. 1,400 plus acres burned since I originally wrote the above post.
Death Toll: over 40,000 people
Still Missing: 32,000 people
Some of the aftershocks over the past three days (they have been happening since the day of the earthquake):
Magnitude 5.0 Friday, May 16, 2008 at 04:16:51 PM (EDT)
Magnitude 5.7 Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 01:08:25 PM (EDT)
Magnitude 4.5 Sunday May 18, 2008 at 08:37:03 AM (EDT)
Magnitude 5.2 Monday, May 19, 2008 at 01:52:33 PM (EDT)
Magnitude 4.5 Monday, May 19, 2008 at 08:57:36 PM (EDT)
Above is a map which shows the locations of the aftershocks. It states there are 28 earthquakes (which includes aftershocks) on the map.
Thanks to Maya for asking about this.
Locations where early warning systems are in use (research stages):
Death toll: 21,500 confirmed.
Recent activity: Powerful aftershocks at 11:34 PM local time (11:34 Am EST) magnitude 5.1; 1:25 PM EST, magnitude 5.5, both of which triggered more landslides and building collapses.
Update on the reach of orginial earthquake at 7.9 on May 12: It was felt in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Thailand.
I can not find news on the dam at Zippingpu yet. The Chinese gov't claims it "plugged the cracks", but I do not feel comfortable about a claim such as that.
A set of imagery from 2006 and the present in Sichuan Province. The strikingly brown areas in the current image are places devastated by the earthquake (showing bare earth from landslides, etc). This set of images is from the Space and Major Disasters organisation that was given to the Chinese government to assist with the disaster. To form this org, countries teamed up, starting in 2000, where they share their satellite imagery for disasters. Members include China National Space Admin, Indian Space Research Org, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, NOAA, NASA, and Argentine Space Agency.
I am far from an expert on Global Warming, and unlike the droves who ingenuously claim to be, I promise - for your credit - not to claim the same emotional high ground "they" so often do. As a fellow Voxer with some interest in the issues of Global Warming, all I can honestly promise to you is my opinion.
First, I find the political argument about whether or not Global Warming is caused by human activity irrelevant because Global Warming is occurring and causing problems for us regardless of its causes.
Second, I don't believe that humanity can do anything to restore the range and mean of global temperature to some optimum state measured over the past two centuries because we don't yet even understand the planetary systems that we would have to control.
Third, in light of the very real environmental problems before us which we can realistically address, I have issue with folks that make Global Warming out to be the BIG problem of our times.
In my opinion climate change is going to compound our basic environmental woes, and while we may not be able to control global climate I do believe we have a chance to adapt to the changes that are going to be thrust upon us in the coming centuries if we get to work. I think environmentalists will better serve the rest of humanity by politicizing the real environmental problems that directly impact us right now.
I believe the big environmental problems in need of solutions are water scarcity, declining fisheries, loss of arable land, and the rise of epidemics (which studies have shown are created by humans - not the disease mind you but the epidemic). I am sure the likes of Jared Diamond or Geology Byotch will claim I am missing some critical issues here, and I might even grudgingly admit that loss of biodiversity and deforestation are also major problems in need of addressing for their own sake. But I'm talking political strategy here, and survival. These are the issues that directly impact human survival today. The common person can understand that the problem impacts them, and the experts could conceivable solve them.
So why - as common citizens - are we making a big fuss about Global Warming in the abstract when we've got tangible problems to address like droughts throughout the United States? I am not asking for an answer for this. The question is asked with eyes raised in frustration at what I see to be stupidity.
Disclaimer: In order to avoid derailment by actual experts taking umbrage at my undermining of Global Warming as "the issue of our times", I must say that I do not have a problem with experts studying the problems of climate change and seeking solutions. I am talking about what I see to be the misplaced focus of us common folk here upon a problem which is - as far as we are concerned - intractible.
May 15, 2008 10:30 AM EST
Confirmed death toll: 19,509
Projected death toll: 50,000
Est. people still buried: ~ 30,000
Also affected: Taiwan
Amount of people estimated to be affected (loss of loved ones, homeless, damage to homes, workplaces, loss of power, injuries, lack of access to water and food): ~ 10 million
Other problems:
- Sichuan Province is home to many dams, and they are damaged by the quake. One dam, the Zipingpu Dam which was recently contructed among very high criticism including that of seismologists and geologists, about its being erected in a quake zone near a faultline, has suffered four inch cracks as well as landslides. This dam stands 500 feet in height and is about 35 miles from the epicentre of the quake. There are an estimated 400 dams with damage from the quake.
- Minyuang is home to several nuclear weapons facilities which have been damaged, reported by the the China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation on its website, but it does not report if there are any leaks or descriptions of the damage.
- Massive mud and landslides have blocked 2 rivers from continuing on their course in Qingchuan County. A huge lake has formed from the backed-up water. They have made an appeal for geologists to develop a rescue plan to assist in resolving this before further disaster strikes.
Celebrities donating: NBA star Yao Ming, proposed over a quarter of a million dollars of personal funds for aide.
Foreigners present at time of the quake: a group of American and British tourists on a WWF trip to observe giant pandas, all were safe and airlifted out today. The pandas at the breeding centre in Wolong were reported safe.
How to help: http://www.interaction.org/china
China’s southwestern region has some major faults, and off its coast the Pacific Plate is jamming itself beneath the continental crust of China as well as the Philippines Plate, which is also cramming itself beneath China. Between the Pacific Plate and the Philippines Plate lays the Mariana Trench, the deepest trench in the ocean. This all means, lots of tectonic activity, lots of stuff moving around and lots of stress building up. Which means, now and then to relieve the stress, earthquake.
Last night while people were sleeping in the US, morning time UK while people were rising for work, an earthquake struck in Sichuan Province, southwestern China. It buried 900 students beneath their school, among others. The death toll at this time for the province, is 8,500 people.
It registered 7.8 on the Richter Scale, according to the USGS. Its epicenter was ten kilometers deep (6.2 miles). Over 900 miles away in Beijing, people felt the shaking. In Shanghai, skyscrapers swayed like leaves in the wind. People in Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan felt it.
The deadliest recorded earthquake China has suffered killed nearly a quarter of a million people in 1976 (updated May 13; was orginally reported 1978, figure taken from an AP report).
Cyclones, another word for hurricanes (as well as typhoons), do normally occur in the Bay of Bengal. On this planet, in most cases, warm water + wind blowing the right way = tropical storms. The average occurrence of tropical storms is 4 to 6 storms with only 2 reaching cyclone status per year, and the season runs from the spring through fall, going to sleep from June til September, being influenced by such factors as monsoons when the ITCZ moves over land. The peak number normally occur in October. They form in the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), the same wind belt where storms form in the Atlantic. The frequency of storms has been found to be increasing during ENSO (El Nino) years (according to the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre). The powerful cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar, formerly Burma, on May 2, 2008. At its peak it was a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour (kmh). Highest recorded winds were 220 kmh. The storm surge caused a large tidal wave 12 feet in height that washed out entire villages. UN officials report that hundreds of thousands of people are now homeless. There is massive price gouging of food, water and fuel.
The death toll now stands at 15,000 people, with 30,000 still missing. (May 5) UPDATE MAY 7: OVER 22,000 DEAD, 41,000 MISSING, 1 MILLION HOMELESS. The UN has consulted with many scientists and last year issued a report which included the statement, that the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons is increasing, and is directly related to global warming. If as you read this, you sit on your sofa, or computer chair, or on the grass of the park, and feel helpess, you are not. You care enough to read this, and you can care enough to unplug your clothes dryer, or increase the temp so the air conditioning is not so low you can sleep beneath a blanket in the hot of summer; you can shop with your carbon footprint in mind; you can ride a bike to work; you can vote. We are not helpless. We have enough will and brain power to make change. Peace out.
